{
  "experiment": "Training-only order selection; training-only exogenous scenario; 17-month horizon",
  "folds": [
    {
      "fold": 1,
      "train_n": 66,
      "test_n": 17,
      "train_end": "2022-04-01",
      "test_start": "2022-05-01",
      "test_end": "2023-09-01",
      "order": [
        0,
        1,
        0
      ],
      "with_intercept": false,
      "converged": true,
      "metrics": {
        "train_selected_arimax": {
          "mae_pp": 3.691918518512734,
          "rmse_pp": 4.005504880196609
        },
        "training_mean": {
          "mae_pp": 2.307450980392157,
          "rmse_pp": 3.195254560157587
        },
        "last_value": {
          "mae_pp": 3.9529411764705875,
          "rmse_pp": 4.277668413846909
        },
        "seasonal_naive": {
          "mae_pp": 3.4205882352941175,
          "rmse_pp": 4.655632262615454
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "fold": 2,
      "train_n": 83,
      "test_n": 17,
      "train_end": "2023-09-01",
      "test_start": "2023-10-01",
      "test_end": "2025-02-01",
      "order": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ],
      "with_intercept": false,
      "converged": true,
      "metrics": {
        "train_selected_arimax": {
          "mae_pp": 1.451916990654757,
          "rmse_pp": 1.6487546869016065
        },
        "training_mean": {
          "mae_pp": 1.205988660524451,
          "rmse_pp": 1.614190161283877
        },
        "last_value": {
          "mae_pp": 1.8158823529411765,
          "rmse_pp": 2.0026085929283806
        },
        "seasonal_naive": {
          "mae_pp": 1.7394117647058824,
          "rmse_pp": 2.5811158097864206
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "fold": 3,
      "train_n": 100,
      "test_n": 17,
      "train_end": "2025-02-01",
      "test_start": "2025-03-01",
      "test_end": "2026-07-01",
      "order": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ],
      "with_intercept": false,
      "converged": true,
      "metrics": {
        "train_selected_arimax": {
          "mae_pp": 1.0673436964708165,
          "rmse_pp": 1.2261932938764697
        },
        "training_mean": {
          "mae_pp": 0.8899235294117647,
          "rmse_pp": 1.0873637567124284
        },
        "last_value": {
          "mae_pp": 0.8735294117647059,
          "rmse_pp": 1.0824291852941097
        },
        "seasonal_naive": {
          "mae_pp": 0.7970588235294118,
          "rmse_pp": 0.9667684192559189
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "mean_fold_metrics": {
    "train_selected_arimax": {
      "mae_pp": 2.0703930685461027,
      "rmse_pp": 2.293484286991562
    },
    "training_mean": {
      "mae_pp": 1.4677877234427907,
      "rmse_pp": 1.9656028260512974
    },
    "last_value": {
      "mae_pp": 2.214117647058823,
      "rmse_pp": 2.4542353973564666
    },
    "seasonal_naive": {
      "mae_pp": 1.9856862745098038,
      "rmse_pp": 2.734505497219265
    }
  },
  "limitations": "Small nonseasonal search. Three folds; not a final untouched holdout. Snapshot data, no original publication vintages. Not evidence of causal effects."
}